IMF explores Africa's Demographic Dividend

In the latest edition of the Regional Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund considers how Sub-Saharan Africa can harness the demographic dividend* in the 20 years to come.

As infant mortality and fertility rates decline, the continent will indeed become the main source of new entrants into the global labor force. The report argues that the region could benefit from a substantial demographic dividend, the magnitude of which will depend on the speed of transition and policy choices. The report echoes the analysis of Jean-Michel Severino in recent articles and interviews, as the challenge of job creation in Subsaharan Africa is core to I&P's activities.(see for example: Arte in December 2014, Le Point Afrique in June 2015)

Main Findings

• Sub-Saharan Africa’s population (currently 800 million) is projected to rise to 2 billion by 2050

• By 2050, the working age population (ages 15-64) is projected to triple to 1.25 billion

• Sub-Saharan Africa will need to create jobs at an extremely rapid pace (about 18 million per year until 2035) to absorb this growing labor force

• The informal sector accounts for about 90% of the 400 million jobs in low-income sub-Saharan African countries: a gradual transition to non-agricultural formal sector is needed

• Demographic developments are projected to vary significantly across the region: the eastern and western parts of sub-Saharan Africa will have the biggest increase in population

Download the Report

*The demographic dividend is defined as “an episode of higher economic growth driven by changes in the age structure of the population and by accompanying policies